Trump's year of reckoning

Your guide to how Washington shapes business and the economy

VIEW IN BROWSER | SUBSCRIBE MON, NOV 04, 2019 CNBC POLITICS EDITOR'S NOTE Hello,   We are just under a year from the 2020 election, and President Trump is still in a pretty good position to win despite all the controversies, investigations and weak approval numbers.   Yes, it's true that 49% of Americans want Trump impeached and removed from office, according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll. And, yes, the New York district attorney keeps winning court battles to get his hands on eight years' worth of the president's tax returns, which Trump has kept out of the public eye.     Yet while Trump's national poll numbers are soft, and he consistently loses hypothetical matchups against potential Democratic rival Joe Biden, there's evidence that he's still in a great position to win the Electoral College next year. Then there's the big question of whether Trump's eventual opponent will do enough to convince voters in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that they will do more for their bank accounts than the president has.   There are real fears that a recession could hit next year, and that could potentially dampen Trump's prospects. It's still anyone's guess, and a recession might not be apparent right away. The president himself has generated some economic jolts, but stocks, the job market and the consumer keep chugging along anyway. And unless there is some truly dramatic shock to the economy, Trump will continue to have the upper hand.    Thoughts on Trump's chances next year, or about his potential Democratic rivals? Email me at mike.calia@nbcuni.com and let me know.   Thanks for reading.    Have friends or colleagues who might like this newsletter? They can sign up here. For more on the intersection of business and politics, sign up for the weekly Capital Exchange newsletter here. Mike Calia @Michael_Calia KEY STORIES  Here are the economic issues that will define the year until Trump's 2020 reelection bid A healthy economy should bode well for Trump's 2020 reelection chances, but uncertainty created by trade policy poses risks. Wall Street donors are so worried about Warren that they are snubbing Dems in 2020 Senate races Some finance executives have recently told Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer that they are holding back from donating to Democrats running for Senate in 2020 due to their concerns about Elizabeth Warren, sources say. Trump will ask Supreme Court to take New York tax returns case after losing appeal The three-judge appeals panel in New York rejected President Donald Trump's argument that he is immune as president from criminal investigation by Manhattan D.A. Cyrus Vance Jr. while in the White House. A year out from the election, nearly half of Americans want Trump impeached and removed, new NBC/WSJ poll says While support for impeachment rose, Trump's job approval level ticked up by two percentage points to 45%. Four White House officials defy subpoenas, refuse to testify in House impeachment inquiry All four witnesses called by House impeachment inquiry to testify on Monday have refused to appear. Impeachment, abortion, Obamacare: 'Ticking time bombs' one year before Election Day A historic impeachment battle against President Trump coincides with a Supreme Court term apparently destined to dredge up top social flashpoints, from abortion to guns to immigration. Trump is competitive in six 2020 swing states despite national weakness, polls say Matchups featuring Trump against Biden, Sanders and Warren are toss-ups a year before the 2020 election, New York Times/Siena polls say. Both Facebook and Twitter are getting it wrong when it comes to political ads The social media companies' polar opposite approaches to political advertising may both have some unintended consequences.       Unsubscribe Manage Newsletters Terms of Service Join the CNBC Panel Digital Products Feedback Privacy Policy   © 2019 CNBC LLC. All rights reserved. A property of NBCUniversal. 900 Sylvan Avenue, Englewood Cliffs, NJ 07632 Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes and Market Data and Analysis. Data also provided by THOMSON REUTERS