EDITOR'S NOTE
The next big shift in the market may come tomorrow afternoon when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell unveils the central bank's next move as well as its outlook for the rest of the year.
The Fed is widely expected to cut its key interest rate by a quarter point, although President Donald Trump has been demanding a larger reduction to keep the economy humming under his watch.
The Fed is also under market pressure to cut rates. As seen in the chart below, the yield on the 10-year Treasury is well below the Federal Funds rate, and inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is well below the Fed's target of 2%, giving the Fed room to cut. As rates go lower, the Fed may have less influence over the market. Interest rates soared this week in what's known as the repo market. This is where the Fed and Wall Street's biggest banks trade overnight loans to maintain liquidity. Rates spiked because there wasn't enough cash to go around.
Some blamed quarterly tax season as large corporations sought cash to pay Uncle Sam. Others blamed the Fed for not keep enough cash in the system. Others still, suggested the runaway rate was just another sign that the Fed was losing control. Powell will likely address this issue tomorrow as he announces the Fed's decision and offers guidance on rates.
Oil prices, which had skyrocketed after a weekend attack on Saudi oil installations, fell after Energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the lost oil supply would be back online by the end of September.
Given recent volatility, it was a day of calm. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
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Selasa, 17 September 2019
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