Are home prices about to go negative?

Kelly Evans's afternoon commentary & top market stories

VIEW IN BROWSER | SUBSCRIBE TUE, SEP 24, 2019 YOUR AFTERNOON NEWS UPDATE AND MARKET ACTION FROM CNBC AS OF TUE, SEP 24, 2019 • 11:58 ET DJIA 26916.26 -0.13% -33.73 S&P 500 2983.93 -0.26% -7.85 NASDAQ 8052.07 -0.74% -60.39 EDITOR'S NOTE Home prices are barely rising year-over-year in major American cities.    The Case-Shiller index of prices in 20 major cities rose just 2% in July from a year earlier, we learned today--the slowest annual gain since 2012.    There has been a clear loss of momentum in prices since the 2018 highs--which isn't necessarily a bad thing. The last thing anyone wants is another housing bubble a la 2005-07; and affordability was getting pretty bad, especially for first-time buyers. The 20-city index was rising 6.7% year-on-year during its March 2018 peak, according to J.P. Morgan.    So what changed? According to Jefferies, "The deceleration has been driven by high-tax locations and especially for high-end homes." Remember, the 2018 tax cut act limited the state & local tax ("SALT") deductions which hit those households the most. That has coincided with a general exodus out of the highest-priced, top-tier cities and into more affordable ones. The five worst performing cities in July were Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego, Chicago, and New York. Seattle prices outright declined year-on-year.    For now at least, the broader FHFA gauge of U.S. home prices is still showing a healthy (maybe too healthy) 5% annual growth, down from its 7.5% peak in early 2018. And affordability for first-time buyers is still an issue. But for markets where prices are now flat to falling, the potential loss of equity--and population--will create much larger future headaches.    We'll have more today on this, Bernie's mega wealth tax, the momentum/value tug-of-war; and Thomas Philippon will try to convince us that France has something to teach the U.S. about free markets.    See you at 1 p.m.!    Kelly       Kelly Evans @KellyCNBC KEY STORIES  How 16-year-old Greta Thunberg's rise could backfire on environmentalists A new focus on making environmentalism an angrier protest movement threatens to make the effort to protect the planet just another wedge issue, writes Jake Novak. 'Billionaires should not exist': Bernie Sanders tries to outdo Elizabeth Warren with tougher wealth tax proposal Sen. Bernie Sanders unveils a tax on wealth as he aims to cut income inequality and fund his sprawling social programs. A majority of the ultra-wealthy expect a recession next year and are hunkering down More than half of the super-rich around the world are already preparing for a recession. Here are the biggest analyst calls of the day: Apple, Netflix, Disney, Snap, Wynn & more Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Tuesday Signs point to reheating in housing market as home price gains stop slowdown, S&P Case-Shiller July index says The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index rose 3.2% annually in July, the same gain reported in June. Prices are still cooling in the largest cities. Now that Netflix is negative for the year, Wall Street analysts are starting to panic Two more Wall Street analysts have begun airing doubts about Netflix. There's a theory retiring baby boomers cashing out will cause a 'dark period' for the stock market Jefferies analysts discuss an economic theory that the impending wave of baby boomer retirements could trigger a U.S. equity slump. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross falls asleep at United Nations during Trump's speech The 81-year-old Commerce secretary took a nap — a very long nap — as his boss President Donald Trump addressed the U.N. General Assembly. A new Apple analyst just came out with a very bullish call, saying Street underestimating 5G impact Wall Street's estimates for the impact of 5G iPhones on Apple are too conservative, according to Jefferies' new Apple analyst. Trump tells UN he will not accept a 'bad' trade deal with China Speaking to the United Nations General Assembly, Trump strikes an optimistic tone about reaching a trade deal with China.     IN CASE YOU MISSED IT Republic CEO explains how to find early investing opportunities Why Disney said "no thanks" to Twitter, the NYSE bets on Bitcoin and the collapse of Thomas Cook Homeowner equity hits an all time high, here's what it means   Unsubscribe Manage Newsletters Terms of Service Join the CNBC Panel Digital Products Feedback Privacy Policy   © 2019 CNBC LLC. All rights reserved. A property of NBCUniversal. 900 Sylvan Avenue, Englewood Cliffs, NJ 07632 Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes and Market Data and Analysis. Data also provided by THOMSON REUTERS