EDITOR'S NOTE
Hello,
It's looking more and more like Bernie Sanders is on the path to the Democratic presidential nomination. He won the Nevada caucuses, and he won big – thanks in large part to an ethnically and ideologically diverse coalition of voters.
While Sanders' momentum is the main headline, the second-biggest story out of this past Saturday's caucuses was Joe Biden's survival. His campaign said they were expecting a second-place finish in Nevada, and they got what they wanted. After fourth- and fifth-place finishes in predominantly white Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively, the former vice president needed to demonstrate a decent showing in a more diverse state.
Now comes South Carolina. The state's primary is seen as a bellwether for whom the Democratic Party's powerful bloc of black voters will largely support. For a while, Biden was the undisputed polling leader in the field among black voters. However, that support has plummeted in recent weeks as Biden's campaign struggled and Mike Bloomberg, a fellow moderate, entered the race and rose in the polls. Sanders, too, has been attracting more black support.
In South Carolina itself, Biden used to enjoy massive leads among the whole Democratic electorate and among the state's black Democrats. At the end of 2019, Biden was up nearly 20 points in the Real Clear Politics polling average of the Palmetto State. As of Monday morning, that lead was down to 3 points as the Sanders surge continues. Billionaire Tom Steyer might be doing the most damage to Biden, however. According to a new CBS News poll, Steyer's black support in the state shot up to 24% this week from 2% in November, while Biden's fell to 35% from 54%.
With a debate in South Carolina at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday night (we will be live blogging it at CNBC.com) and the state's primary on Saturday, this is shaping up to be the make-or-break week for Biden's campaign. Super Tuesday is just eight days away. If he has a prayer of staying in the race beyond then, it's time to show why he was considered the front-runner just a few weeks ago.
Thanks for reading.
Thoughts? Email me at CNBCPolitics@nbcuni.com.
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Senin, 24 Februari 2020
Biden's make-or-break week
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