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Happy New Year from CNBC's health team! One thing's clear about the pharmaceutical industry in 2024: The fundamental stories that defined last year will face major tests.
Here's what to watch in the year ahead.
All eyes will stay on the booming weight loss drug market. Demand for the drugs is unlikely to slow down, but investors will be watching whether the dominant players in the market – Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly – can ease the widespread supply issues that have made their injectable treatments difficult for patients to find.
The months ahead will also shape whether insurance coverage for the drugs will expand, particularly after recent data showed that Novo Nordisk's Wegovy cuts the risk of serious heart problems. The drug could potentially win an expanded approval for that purpose this year.
Otherwise, new data and deals in 2024 will give us a better idea of the competitive landscape for weight loss drugs. Larger companies hoping to join the market will release crucial data on their own experimental drugs, or could ink partnerships with, or acquire, smaller obesity drugmakers.
It will be a critical year for other drugs, too. The rollout of Leqembi, the first-ever treatment proven to slow the progression of Alzheimer's, will come into clearer focus this year. We'll see if the makers of the drug, Eisai and Biogen, can meet their lofty target of having 10,000 patients receive Leqembi by the end of March. For context, about 800 people had received Leqembi as of November.
U.S. regulators also just approved the first gene-editing therapy, Casgevy, for sickle cell disease last month. While some 20,000 Americans with that condition may be eligible for the treatment, analysts expect far fewer will actually get it this year. Another big question is whether insurers will cover a treatment that costs more than $2 million per patient.
Lastly, 2024 will help to define the fate of the Biden administration's Medicare drug price negotiations. U.S. patients and drugmakers will get a first glimpse of how much Medicare can secure lower drug prices later this year, setting the precedent for a controversial process that aims to lower what seniors pay for expensive medications.
It could also be a pivotal year for the lawsuits that several drugmakers – including Merck and Bristol Myers Squibb – have filed against the price talks. Decisions could come down in some of the cases next year, which could eventually escalate the issue to the Supreme Court.
Feel free to send any tips, suggestions, story ideas and data to me at annikakim.constantino@gmail.com.
